Lazarus Dawa
University of Sriwijaya Palembang, Indonesia
Email: ldawa@live.com.au
September 2012
I. INTRODUCTION
Climate change has been discussed as one of the most important factor that will impact food security, leading to increase number of hunger people and malnutrition as a result of collapse food system. Food production will become a challenge for the world to achieve under adverse changing environmental conditions, increasing population pressure and degrading land and natural resources. Papua New Guinea will be greatly affected because more than 80 percent of the population are subsistence farmers who rely on food gardens, forest and ocean or waters for their daily food needs. In order to adapt to the effect of climate change while ensuring sufficient and quality food is available and accessible to every household at all times, appropriate approaches are needed by each government and relevant stakeholders involved in working towards securing resilient livelihood system for the people.
Factors contributing to climate change
Human activities have been one of the biggest contributing factor of climate changes by altering the composition of the atmosphere. Continued realease of green house gases (methane, carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide and halo carbons) into the atmosphere has cause the earths temperature to increase resulting in the event of global warming. The main activities that leads to increase in GHG into the atmosphere has been due to the burning of the fossil fuels to meet energy demands, land use for agricultural activities for the food production, and deforestation (FAO, 2008a). The manifestation of climate change can be observed by the increase surface temperature of earth by 2-40C, increase level of carbondioxide in the atmosphere, varying rainfall patterns and precipitation, longer drought periods, extreme weather conditions such as cyclone and floods and change in the ecosystem.
Climate change in the pacific
Papua New Guinea is one of the Pacific island nation facing vulnerability to climate change such as cyclone, drought, rising sea level and flooding. Majority of the population depend on subsistence farming for their livelihood by using the surrounding natural resources for their food and source of income. In 2011, islanders in Nissan, Carterets and Mortlock experienced food shortage in which approximately 6000 people were in need of food assistance (IRIN, 2011). This event occured after extended dry season causing drought and loss of food and water for the islanders. Climate change will have severe repercussions on the livelihood of the people in the absence of any effective govenment intervention that will aim to achieve and improve resilience to food security under climate change condition. Planning and implementing programs that will mitigate the effect of climate change and long term adaptability strategies are essential steps contributing to efforts on reducing emission of GHG and ensuring food security.
II. EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FOOD SECURITY
Food Availability
Climate change will have negative effect on food crop production, livestock and fisheries sectors. Food crop production is very susceptible to climate change and it was estimated that it will reduce crop yields. There will be varying rainfall patterns resulting in heavier precipitation than usual and longer extended drought periods in the tropics. Food crops seasonal production will be affected and reduce yield as plants become intolerant to longer drought and wet seasons. Crop modeling studies under climate change showed that in the tropics average temperature increase of 1-2oC will have negative impact on crop production (Tubiello et al, 2008)
Animal production will be affected by climate change as temperature increase can cause heat stress to the animals which interfere with their physiological process, health and reproduction. Indirectly when climate change reduced capacity for food production, animal nutrition will be in short supply and therefore prevent them from reaching full growth potential.
In the fisheries sector especially catch fisheries, fish production capacity will not be influence by climate change but it will affect the spatial distribution of the fish in the ocean. Increase in water temperature will cause migration of the fish to more cool part of the ocean where it is favorable. Fish and other marine life will be at risk of loss due to build up of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The capacity of the ocean to absorb CO2 with any detrimental effect to marine life is about 30%, however increased emission of green house gases will lead to rise in level of CO2 in the ocean which are converted to carbonic acid causing death of coral reef.
Food accessibility
Food accessibility refers to the ability of the household to have means either physical or economic means to have food for their daily consumption. Household who rely on farming as their ways to earning income and providing food will experience less income and few foods available to meet their needs as land and environment become unsuitable for their crop or animal production. A decrease in food production will cause price of food to escalate, reducing the purchasing power of poor household and hindering them from access to enough for their consumption.
Food utilization
Food security is vital in achieving good nutrition status. Climate change has been predicted to have negative consequences on fullfilling the required nutritional needs of people if the availability and accessiblity to food is reduced. The number of malnourished children and woman who are vulnerable will be at stake of disease and increase chances of mortality.
Climate change will increase incidence of food borne diseases due to changing patterns of food pathogens and altering of the environment that result in the imbalance in the microbial ecosystem.
Food handling and preparation hazard assessment need to be reviewed to identify new risk that emerged as impact of increase global surface temperature. Food industries will need to reorientate their food safety systems to prevent food borne disease outbreak that may result due to climate change effect.
Cholera outbreak is termed as one of the good scenario to understand the effect of climate change on food borne disease outbreak.The outbreak reach high levels was found to be related to increase water temperature (FAO, 2008b). Another example of climate change on food borne disease outbreak was studied between the hospitalization of children due to rotavirus infection, following periods of high temperature and humidity, there was decreased rate of hospitalization in children observed (D’Souza et al, 2008). The study therefore showed that rotavirus is less tolerable to high temperature but favors low temperature.
Stability of the system
The constant access and availability of sufficient and nutritious food by every household is important to achieve food security. If food production decline and on the supply side there is insufficient quantities of food availble to meet the demand, then food system stability will be difficult task to achieve.
III. MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION
Mitigation approach refers to methods that are needed to reduce the emission of green house gases and other land use activities that contribute to climate change. Adaptation is based on the approach that are necessary to optimize safe, nutritious and sufficient food supply and accessiblity in the era of climate change.
Mitigating approach
Land use change for agriculture activity contributes to increase in green house gases. Clearing of new lands for agriculture activities reduce the area of forest available for sequestring of CO2. In additon opening of wet lands for crop cultivation release methane gas to the atmosphere. Land tillage, use of nitrogen fertilizers are contributing factors to GHG emissions as well. Management of crop land through appropriate practices provide possible mitigation solution towards effort on reducing of GHG. Intensification of the already cultivated land to optimize agriculture output without need for more new land openings. Farming with perenial crops provide cover for soil from erosion, capture the carbon stock and form part of the agro forestry system.
Ongoing logging activities, clearing of lands for cash crop and food crops production has led to decrease conversion of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Efforts to increase of forest area from unused land as well as increasing carbon density of existing forest present better option for mitigating climate change.
Papua New Guinea forest covers is the third in the world. According to Green peace (2012), over 60 percent of the forest has been exploited by logging and agriculture activity already. Issues of illegal logging and lease of land for agriculture uses has been stated by World Bank and UN as a threat to the existing forest sustainability. Since PNG has been part of the signatory to the Kyoto
protocol in reducing GHG it is the government responsibilities to regulate logging in a sustainable way and ensure transparency in leasing permit for agriculture and logging activities.
Following the Kyoto protocol in 1997, use of the ecosystem as carbon sequesterants was suggested as one of the way forward for nations to adapt and implement as global efforts towards mitigation of GHG.
Carbon sinks in the soil and plants can be used to absorb carbon dioxide in the atmosphere through recommended soil management practice. The benefits to soil is attain as carbon compounds in the soil is restored, which improves soil quality and optimize land for crop production.
Adaptive actions
The adaptive approach to be taken by the government or concerned groups to ensure food supply is consistent despite climate changing will be discussed here.
Identifying better technology to produce, preserve and distribute food will contribute to ensuring food security. Development of new crop varieties tolerable to the climatic changes such as drought or rainfall are innovative prospects in the agriculture sector to keep up with the food production. Establishment of irrigation system for farmers is essential intervention when rainfall patterns become less which can cause huge loss to crops. Upgrading of current infrastructure and storage facilities for distribution of crops from the producer to the consumers remain an issue in PNG, due to rough geographical condition of the land. If a better market supply chain for food commodities exist food shortage in one region can be relieved through inter state or regional food exchange. Achieving technological solution for food security adaptation in condition of climate change will require investment from both the government and private sectors.
Review of the current hazard assessment plan and identifying of new risks present in the food system are possible actions that can provide assurance that the food are safer for the population.
In order to prevent the loss of food and income due to climate change, programes aimed at improving food security could focus on diversification of income and food sources. If a major means of earning income is not possible or food crops fail then people can easily transition to another options to sustain their living especially diversifying to non agricultural activity.
Government investment into safety nets program is important to assist households who experienced loss of income or less food access during the event of climate change. Social safety nets programs need to be established and requires government reserving of funds for that purpose before the shock eventuates.
To summarize food security remains an important agenda for any government of the day. Prior planning and channeling of resources towards preparation of resilience system from effect of climate change are best decisions forwards as well as taking part in global action on reducing and sequestering of green house gases. Papua new guinea has a large rural base population whose livelihood are earned through subsistence farming, which place them in a vulnerable position to effect of climate change.
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