EFSA final aspartame evaluation as safe

Aspartame and its breakdown products are safe for human consumption at current levels of exposure, EFSA concludes in its first full risk assessment of this sweetener. To carry out its risk assessment, EFSA has undertaken a rigorous review of all available scientific research on aspartame and its breakdown products, including both animal and human studies.

“This opinion represents one of the most comprehensive risk assessments of aspartame ever undertaken. It’s a step forward in strengthening consumer confidence in the scientific underpinning of the EU food safety system and the regulation of food additives”, said the Chair of EFSA’s Panel on Food Additives and Nutrient Sources Added to Foods (ANS Panel), Dr Alicja Mortensen.

Experts of ANS Panel have considered all available information and, following a detailed analysis, have concluded that the current Acceptable Daily Intake (ADI) of 40mg/kg bw/day is protective for the general population. However, in patients suffering from the medical condition phenylketonuria (PKU), the ADI is not applicable, as they require strict adherence to a diet low in (an amino acid found in proteins).

Following a thorough review of evidence provided both by animal and human studies, experts have ruled out a potential risk of aspartame causing damage to genes and inducing cancer. EFSA’s experts also concluded that aspartame does not harm the brain, the nervous system or affect behaviour or cognitive function in children or adults. With respect to pregnancy, the Panel noted that there was no risk to the developing fetus from exposure to phenylalanine derived from aspartame at the current ADI (with the exception of women suffering from PKU).

The opinion makes clear that the breakdown products of aspartame (phenylalanine, methanol and aspartic acid) are also naturally present in other foods (for instance, methanol is found in fruit and vegetables). The contribution of breakdown products of aspartame to the overall dietary exposure to these substances is low.

The opinion describes the criteria used to identify the studies relevant for the risk assessment and standards applied to evaluate the scientific evidence. EFSA’s experts examined all uncertainties related to the evaluation of aspartame. The opinion explains how these were addressed in the risk assessment to ensure that potential risks from aspartame were not underestimated.

The comprehensive review carried out by the ANS Panel was made possible following two public calls for data which made available a large body of scientific information, comprising both published and previously unpublished data and studies.

EFSA received over 200 comments during the public consultation on the draft opinion (that took place from 9 January 2013 to 15 February 2013) and all of these were considered. During the consultative phase EFSA also held a hearing with interested parties to discuss its draft opinion and the feedback received from the online public consultation. EFSA’s dialogue with stakeholders revealed that there were important aspects of the draft opinion that needed to be clarified in the final output.

EFSA is also publishing today the comments on the draft opinion received during the public consultation, its responses to the comments received and a statement on two recent publications, one from the US Environmental Protection Agency and the other Gift et al., that were brought to EFSA’s attention after the closure of the public consultation. Neither of these studies alters EFSA’s conclusion on aspartame.

SOURCE: EFSA WEBSITE

Impact of climate change on world soybean (Glycine max.) production: A nutrition and food security perspective in Indonesia

International Seminar on Climate Change and Food Security, 2013

(ISCCFS 2012)

Palembang, South Sumatra-Indonesia, 25 October, 2013

Lazarus Dawa ¹

¹ University of Sriwijaya, Palembang, Indonesia

Abstract. 

Indonesian imports of soybean represents a share of 2 percent of the total soybean traded in the world.  Due to deficit in domestic soybean production , over 80 percent of it must be imported to meet the high demand of soybean based food and oil.  Changing climatic conditions of increasing atmospheric temperature, accumulating level of carbondioxide, and varying rainfalls will alter soybean yields in the major producing regions. According to projection, USA, Brazil and Argentina will still lead in production of soybean up to 2020.  Various study have demonstrated yield decrease up to 40 percent in the major producing areas under different climate change scenarios. Since Indonesia imports over half of the total soybean needed to meet its yearly consumption, it is very vulnerable to world price volatility and poses threat to food security.  Lack of recognizing future threats and responding through effective interventions can lead to food insecurity and increase in malnutrition problems in the country.

Keywords: Soybean, climate change, nutrition, food security.

1.     Background

Soybean is one of the food commodities that has profound significance to the livelyhood of Indonesian people.  It provides an affordable and rich source of plant protein that is accessible to the majority of the population.  Over half of the household in Indonesia consumed tempeh and tofu which are produced from soybean [1]. The imports of soybean to indonesia was about 1.2 million metric tonne in 2011 [2].  It was reported that in 2012 and 2013, soybean import will be over 80 percent to meet the domestic demand [3].  In addition to consumption, producers of major foods from soybean especially tempeh and tofu benefit through marketing of the food.  Soybean therefore is important in maintaining welfare and food security in Indonesia.  The changing world climatic conditions, will affect soybean production that  may result in adverse effect to consumers and other users of soybeans.  Loss of productivity due to extreme climatic conditions will cause soybean supply to decline, a limited supply and high demand will force price to escalate.  High price will reduce soybean accessibility for processors and limit consumption by end users.

     The aim of this paper are to review impact of climate change on yield of soybean in the largest exporting soybean nation and provide a discussion on the possible implications it will have on food and nutrition security in Indonesia.

2.     Literature Review

2.1 World production and consumption of soybean

     Soybean is traded in world for its oil, as food, soymeal for supplement in animal feeds and biofuel production. The major producing countries of soybean in the world are USA, Brazil and Argentina that supplied almost 90 percent of the total soybean in the world market [4,5]. Production trends for the 3 countries are displayed in Figure 1, showing soybean yields over the years up to 2012.

Figure 1: Soybean production trends in 3 major producing countries. Source: Faostat, 2013.

     The 2011 yield of soybean in USA was 8 percent less than in 2010 due lower planting and yield loss by weather changes .  Competition of land by other crops such as maize also account for the decrease in harvest yield [6]. Indonesian imports of soybean is amongst the top 10 in the world, and occupies about 2 percent of the total soybean import [2].  China still remains the largest importer of soybeans on world market.  It was forcasted that from 2010-2020 U.S soybean production will remain near flat due to limited hectares available for cultivation, while Brazil and Argentina are expected to increase soybean exports to satisfy world demand [4].

2.2 Soybean supply and utilization in Indonesia

     The soybean supply in Indonesia is derived from both domesic production and imports.  Over half of the total soybean demand in indonesia is met from imports.  In 2011/2012 the country’s domestic production was less by 30,000 MT compared to the 2010/2011 production at 650 000 MT. The import of soybean in period of 2011/2012 was 1.922MMT which marked an increase of 1.26 percent than the previous period. Amost 88 percent of soybean supply in indonesia are used for making tempeh and tofu [7].  The major imports of soybean in indonesia is from USA about 90 percent while remainding fraction come from Argentina, Malaysia and other producing countries [8].The estimated per capita consumption annually for tempeh and tofu is 8.5 and 7.8 kg/cap/year respectively [1].  The soybean consumption increased from 8.13 in 1998 to 8.94kg/cap/year in 2004 while local production of soybean had been declining since 2009 from 97,000 tonnes to 85,000 tonnes in 2012 [5].

2.3 Climate change effect on soybean production

     Among other factors the main contributor of climate change is due to anthropogenic emission of green house gases (GHG) especially carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide.  The agriculture sector is vulnerable to changes in temperature, precipitation and carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere [9].  Higher temperatures affect plant health, increase prevalence of pests and reduce water available in plants through rapid rate of evapo transpiration.  Varying rainfall patterns decrease water availability and have negative consequences for both rainfed and irrigated farming systems while increased level of carbondioxide may improve crop yield in some regions [10] The growth and productivity of crops can be either positively or negatively affected by climate change.  In elevated CO₂ concentration free aircarbon experimented study (FACE) showed 15-25% increase in yield of C₃ crops (wheat, rice, soybean) and 5-10% in C4 crops (maize, sorghum, sugarcane).  High level of CO₂ also increase the water use efficience of the C3 and C4 plants.  While other studies demonstrated that increase level of CO₂ showed less favorable crop response [11]. Crop modeling study under increasing atmospheric temperature of 1-3^oC were demonstrated to have less beneficial changes on crop production in temperate regions and negative yield impact of crops in tropical regions under increase atmospheric level and varrying rainfalls [12].

     A non linear projection of soybean under temperature range from 29-30^oC showed yield increase with rising temperature, however temperaure over 30^oC reduce soybean yield [13]. Changes in temperature during summer period was shown to affect soybean production and variation in rainfall pattern during planting and phase of development also affect soybean yield in Southern Brazil [14].   Water stress during early reproduction and seed filling stage was found to accelerate senescence leading to early maturity and low yield of soybean up to 10-23 percent [15]. Climate change was predicted to affect yield in the 3 major exporting countries of soybean.  The impact is presented in the Table 1, below under different climate change scenarios [16].

Table 1: Impact of climate change on soybean yield (%) under different climate change scenarios.

Source: Adams et al. 1998

     The data in Table 1, showed decline in yield for soybean in Argentina and Brazil while for USA the change in yield will vary across the region.  This data presented important implications for importing countries because according to forcast, Brazil, USA and Argentina will still lead in exporting of soybean up to 2020.

3.     Discussion

     Under changing climate condition and competition of land by other crops, soybean production in the major growing and exporting countries like USA, and Brazil had and will experienced decline in harvested yield.  Since agricultural commodities prices are greatly influenced by the large producers, sudden price hikes can have severe repercussion on importing countries. The decline in soybean production in exporting countries and the weakening of the Rupiahs against U.S Dollar have seen the price of soybean soar.

In addition Indonesian policy on self sufficiency and imposing of tarrif on imported soybeans has badly affected the tofu and tempeh industry in the nation.  Local price upsurge of soybean products can have significant impact on tofu and tempeh accessibility and utilization. A study conducted on global price volatility of soybean had shown to have poverty consequences in Indonesia.  Increase of world price of soybean by 20, 40 and 60 percent directly caused the domestic price of soybean to rise by 11.5, 22.1 and 30.1 percent respectively.  These increase in prices correspond with increase in poverty index by 0.132, 0.204 and 0.296 as well [17].  Increase poverty is linked to food insecurity and exacerbate malnutrition problems.  Poor household spend more than half of their total expenditure on food and with food price increase, can have signicant drawbacks on their nutrition and welfare [18].  For instance another study of rice price crisis in 1990 in Indonesia caused increase in maternal wasting because some mothers in poverty marginalized household deliberately reduced their energy intake in order to feed their children [19].

     Tempeh and tofu production occupy a thriving market in indonesia pertaining to the high demand and local preference of the food that is part of the traditional society.  Soybean based food provide an affordable source of protein that majority of population in Indonesia can have access to meet their dietary requirement of protein.  The average consumption of legume food is approximately 9g/cap/day compared to fish which is 13g/cap/day making legumes the second most available consumed protein source.  Decrease in soybean supply can lower the daily intake of protein and other micronutrients essential for promoting health and protection against diseases.  Producers of tempeh and tofu will suffer loss of income as price hike force consumers to limit their soybean based food intakes. Deficiency in soybean will also affect other food production activities that utilize soybean meal for animal and fish feeds and soybean oil for food products.

     If soybean on world supply falls then there will be deficit in demand since the current local production of soybean is insufficient.  If only domestic production of soybean is increased to meet over half of the total demand than it can relieved dependency on imports.  Currently lack of incentives and competition of soybean from imports impede local production.  The government to set floor price for local production can boost and motivate farmers to increase hectare of cultivation.  In order to increase local supply of soybean will mean expansion of current land area available to increase yield.  Land expansion must fall in line with climate mitigation strategies of reducing clearing of new forest.  Crop rotation on current land used for growing rice and maize can alleviate need for further land expansion.

     The government response to high price by waivering of import tarriff barrier was shown to have little effect on improving poverty by only 0.059 percent or decrease in number of people living in poverty by only 12,3275. Intervention to remove tariff from imported soybeans during external price shock can be beneficial if only the world price increase is below 10 percent. [17].

4.     Conclusion

     Agriculture production is vulnerable to effect of climate change that will impact food security, leading to increase number of hunger people and malnutrition as a result of collapse food system. Food production will become a challenge for the world to achieve under adverse changing environmental conditions, increasing population pressure and degrading land and natural resources.  Indonesian dependancy on soybean imports posses a threat to food security with volatility in world soybean price. 

     Building resilience to future effect of climate change on major food commodities like soybean is an essential step forward towards adaptation.  Government investment into boosting local production by encouraging local farmers through incentives, introduction of improved technology can stimulate interest into increase farming of soybeans.  Increase domestic production can relieve dependency on imports and reduce risk to food insecurity during world price upsurge.

5.     References

[1]       Survei Sosial Ekonomi Nasional (2009).  Indonesia Survei Sosial Ekonomi Nasional, Jakarta, Indonesia.

[2]       FAOSTAT, (2011). World top soybean imports 2011. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Rome, Italy.

[3]       Siahaan, T. S., (2013). Indonesia to subsidize local soybean production, Jakart Globe, September 17, 2013. [Online]. Available at: http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/business/indonesia-to-subsidize-local-soybean-production/.

[4]       Taylor, R. D., and Koo, W. W., (2011). 2011 Outlook of the US and World Corn and Soy bean Industries, 2010-2020. Agribusiness and Applied Economics Report No. 682. North Dakota, USA.

[5]       FAOSTAT, (2013).Indonesia soybean production 2013 . Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Rome, Italy.

[6]       Food and Agriculture Organizations of the United Nations (2011). Food Outlook 2011: Global Market analysis. Rome, Italy,pp. 6-121. Available at: http://www.fao.org/docrep/014/al978e/al978e00.pdf

[7]       Slette, J., and Wiyono, I, E, (2013).  Indonesia oilseed and products update 2013. US Department of Agriculture, Foreign Agricultural Service, Global Agriculture Information Network Report No. ID1307, May 2013. Available at: http://usdaindonesia.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/Oilseeds-and-Products-Update_Jakarta_Indonesia_2-5-2013.pdf.

[8]       Iswadi, (2013).  Lesson learned from the soybean cultivation in the U.S.  Jakarta Globe, September 12, 2013 [Online]. Available at: http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2013/09/12/lesson-learned-soybean-cultivation-us.html.

[9]       Lotze-Campen, H., Yadav, S., S., Redden, R.J., Hatfield J.L, Hall, A., E. (2011). Climate change, populaiton growth and crop production: An overview, John Wiley and Sons, Oxford, U.K.

[10]   Food and Agricuture Organization of the United Nations (2011). Global action on climate change in agriculture: Linkages to food security, markets and trade policies in developing countries. FAO, Rome.

[11]   Long, S. P., Ainsworth, E. A., Leakey, A. D., B., Nosberg, J., Ort, D. R.(2006). Food for thought: Lower- than- expected crop yield stimulation with rising CO2 concentration. Science, 312, pp 1918-1921.

[12]   IPCC (2007).  Climate change 2007. Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland. pp 104.

[13]   Schlenker, W., and Roberts, M.J., (2008). Non linear temperature effects indicates severe damage to U.S crop yields under climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 106 (37), pp. 15594 -15595.

[14]   Ferreira, D. B., and Rao, V. B., (2011).  Recent climate variability and its impact on soybean yields in Southern Brazil. Theor. Appl. Climotol. 105. 83-87.

[15]   Brevedan, R. E., and Egli, D. B., (2003). Short periods of water stress during seed filling, leaf senescence, and yield of soybean. Crop Science, 43 (6), pp. 2083-2088.

[16]   Adam, R., M., Hurd, B., Lenhart, S., Leary, N., (1998).  Effects of global climate change on agriculture: an interpretive review. Climate Research, 11, pp. 19-30.  Available at:  http://www.int-res.com/articles/cr/11/c011p019

[17]   Dartanto, T., and Usman, (2011). Volatility of world soybean prices, imports tariff and poverty in Indonesia, A CGE microsimulation analysis. The Journal of Applied Economic Research, 5 (2), pp 139-181

[18]   Food and Agriculture Organizations of the United Nations (2008). State of Food and Agriculture 2008. Rome, Italy, pp. 72-86. Available at: http://www.fao.org/docrep/011/i0100e/i0100e00.htm

[19]   Block, S. A., Keiss, L., Webb, P., Kosen, S., Monech-Pfanner, R., Bloem, M., W., Timmer, C.P., (2004). Macro shocks and Micro outcomes: Child nutrition during Indonesia crisis. Economics and Human Biology, 2, (1). 21-24.

Soil response to impacts of pesticide and fertilizer over time

Lazarus Dawa

University of Sriwijaya, Palembang, Indonesia
Email: ldawa@live.com.au
September, 2013

Introduction

The world population had increased at annual rate of 1.76 from 1950 to 2000 and it was predicted for the next 50 years the average growth rate will be at 0.77 percent per annum (UN,2004).  This directly implies that the current demand for food and meat products will increase and the land and environment must be utilized to meet these growing human needs. In addition to population growth, increase in income and changes in diet pattern especially to more livestock products consumption will also be the main drivers of increase food production (FAO, 2012).  In order to produce more food, the agriculture practices have to be adjusted to increase production quantity.  Land is under pressure from increase human activities and there will be competition for land use for infrastructure development and other non-food uses versus agriculture utilization.  Decrease in land available for agriculture and deterioration of soil quality from continuous cultivation will require intensification process to grow crops by utilizing fertilizers, pesticides, irrigation and other technologies.  Over use of fertilizers and pesticides can have negative effect on soil qualityies.  Application of nitrogen fertilizer in wheat and rice over period of 20 years was found to reduce yield in both crops (Kumar & Yadav, 2001).

Therefore to maintain long term sustainability and productivity of the soil, it is better to choose the best practice of applying fertilizers and pesticides while ensuring food productions are still maintained.
The purpose of this paper is to discuss the various impacts of continuous fertilizer and pesticide use on the soil quality over time.  It will also extend to suggest some of the best options that can be taken to reduce the negative impact of fertilizer and pesticide on the soil.

Effect of pesticides on soil

Pesticides refer to any substance or mixture of substances intended to control, inhibit or destroy any pests that interfere with crop production.  The use of synthetic pesticides has both beneficial and negative effects.  The primary benefit of pesticide use is protection of crops from diseases and pests which reduce losses and preserve crop yields.  Pesticides if manage and use efficiently is safe however over use of it can cause health hazards, interfere with soil and natural bio-ecosystem which can impede food production.
Pesticides use are known to affect soil microorganisms which carry out important soil function such as decomposition of organic matter, supplying of nutrients to soil and maintaining soil structure.
It was found that fumigation of soil with commercial isothiocynate (ITC) based fumigant (metham sodium) had inhibited microbial activity, reduced biomass of all microbial groups and create consistent changes on the structure of the ascomycete community (Omirou et al, 2011).  Ascomoycetes fungus is important for biodegradation process of organic matter through secretion of enzymes that act on degradation of lignin in woods of dead plants (Martinez, et al 2005).  When ascomycetes population in soil is lowered, the degradation process of organic matter will be slowed thus affecting the nutrient profile of the soil especially in terms of carbon and other minerals like phosphorous and nitrogen which are released from the humus as it decay.

While Ahemad and Mohammad (2012) study on rhizobium bacteria exposed to pesticides stress showed reduce production of plant growth producing substance.  The rhizobium bacteria are group of organisms that live freely in soil and colonize the root.  They are usually referred to as plant growth promoting bacteria (PGPR).  The PGPR operate by synthesizing of particular compounds for the plants, facilitates uptake of certain nutrients from the soil and lessening or preventing the plants from disease (Hayat et al, 2010).
Increasing concentration of arsenic pesticide use in soil decrease biomass, shoot height and root length, all of which are important traits of showing plant growth (Quazi et al 2011).  Arsenic being one of the non-essential substance for plant growth, it interferes with metabolic process and inhibit plant growth and death at high concentration.

Effect of fertilizers on soil

Chemical fertilizers are key inputs to increased agricultural food production.  The overall world food supply has been sufficient to meet the population need, the global average per capita food available for direct consumption was 2770 kilo calories/person/day in 2005 and 2007. It is also projected that fertilizer use will increase from 166 million tonnes in 2005 and 2007 to 263 million tonnes in 2050.    Much of this achievement in general food production can be attributed to the use of fertilizers and developing countries account for 70 percent of global fertilizer consumption (FAO, 2012).  Fertilizers improve and buffer soil fertility by providing essential nutrients such as nitrogen, potassium, phosphorous, and other minerals which the plant needs to sustain growth and production. Although increased fertilizer use will boost crop production, it is also crucial here to identify some negative impact of continuous fertilizer application on the soil health.

Continuous cropping with nitrogen fertilizer application for 25 years in acidic soil was found to reduce the yield of maize and wheat significantly.  The use of nitrogen fertilizer alone had greater impact on reducing soil pH from pH of 5.8 to 4.7 during that period. (Sharma & Subehia, 2003). Nitrogen fertilizers are not acidic but are acid forming due to the presence of ammonia group (NH4) the ammonia oxidizing arachea and ammonia oxidizing bacteria in the soil converts the ammonia to nitrite and then to nitrate by nitrite oxidizers (Alam et al, 2013).

Soil pH is an important aspect of agronomy since it dictates the response of metal ion solubility and availability of nutrient to the varying pH level.  When soil pH is low below the neutral point of 7, the metal ion become more soluble and there is increased tendency of uptake by plants which can lead to mineral toxicity where as some nutrients are bounded in acidic conditions depriving the plants from its nutrients demand.  The response to declining pH level varies among crop types.  For example corn grows in pH between 5.8-7.0, wheat from 6.3-7.0 and cowpea can grow between pH 5.5-7.0.
In long term cropping observation, applying of only nitrogen fertilizer had no increase effect on the soil organic carbon level (Liu et al, 2013).  Organic carbon in soil is a reliable indicator of the state of soil organic matter which the latter is important for improving the soil physical and biological properties to sustain crop production.

Practices to improve soil quality

Based on the few reviewed study on impact of fertilizer and pesticides use on soil which in turn determines the crop health and growth it is important to identify and promote good agricultural practices that is beneficial to the soil as well as the surrounding ecosystem.

1. Altering pesticides and fertilizer usage
Soil quality can be improved by changing the agricultural practices that involve use of fertilizers and pesticides. As observed, it can be seen that use of only one fertilizer affect soil quality and by combining more than one fertilizer can alleviate the negative effect of continuous fertilizer use.  Integrated nutrient management by combining manure and inorganic fertilizer has shown to improve soil organic matter in degrading agriculture land (Liu et al, 2013).  This will provide long term sustainable food production and also contribute to reducing of green house gases from nitrogen fertilizer use.

2. Organic farming
Organic farming represents a promising solution to maintain current soil quality while meeting world food demand.  Shifting from conventional to organic farming eliminates the need for fertilizer and pesticides by utilizing organic means such as manure, cover crops and biopesticides.  In that way, many negative impacts of chemical inputs can be reduced and allow for natural cycles to occur.  Although the question of whether organic farming can meet future food demand exist, a study by Badgley et al (2006) showed that organic farming could produce enough food to meet the current and even expanding world population without increasing the land area. It was also found that leguminous cover crops could produce enough nitrogen to replace the amount of synthetic nitrogen fertilizers currently in use.

Conclusion
The need to feed the world in the next 20 years will depend largely on soil and water availability and qualities.  It is important that these resources must be used in sustainable way by limiting use of chemicals.  Some pesticides are known to affect soil microorganisms that are beneficial to soil health in sustaining plant growth. Fertilizer overuse can also decrease soil quality which creates the problem for the soil to be more reliant on fertilizer and continuous use can eventually lead to unproductive soils.  By date, organic farming remains the best options for long term food production and preservation of soil.

ADAPTIVE AND MITIGATING APPROACH TO EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FOOD SECURITY IN PAPUA NEW GUINEA

Lazarus Dawa

University of Sriwijaya Palembang, Indonesia

Email: ldawa@live.com.au

September 2012

I. INTRODUCTION

Climate change has been discussed as one of the most important factor that will impact food security, leading to increase number of hunger people and malnutrition as a result of collapse food system. Food production will become a challenge for the world to achieve under adverse changing environmental conditions, increasing population pressure and degrading land and natural resources. Papua New Guinea will be greatly affected because more than 80 percent of the population are subsistence farmers who rely on food gardens, forest and ocean or waters for their daily food needs. In order to adapt to the effect of climate change while ensuring sufficient and quality food is available and accessible to every household at all times, appropriate approaches are needed by each government and relevant stakeholders involved in working towards securing resilient livelihood system for the people.

Factors contributing to climate change

Human activities have been one of the biggest contributing factor of climate changes by altering the composition of the atmosphere.  Continued realease of green house gases (methane, carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide and halo carbons) into the atmosphere has cause the earths temperature to increase resulting in the event of global warming.  The main activities that leads to increase in GHG into the atmosphere has been due to the burning of the fossil fuels to meet energy demands, land use for agricultural activities for the food production, and deforestation (FAO, 2008a).  The manifestation of climate change can be observed by the increase surface temperature of earth by 2-40C, increase level of  carbondioxide  in  the  atmosphere,  varying  rainfall  patterns  and  precipitation,  longer  drought periods, extreme weather conditions such as cyclone and floods and change in the ecosystem.

Climate change in the pacific

Papua New Guinea is one of the Pacific island nation facing vulnerability to climate change such as cyclone, drought, rising sea  level  and  flooding. Majority  of  the  population  depend  on subsistence farming for their livelihood by using the surrounding natural resources for their food and source of income.   In 2011, islanders in Nissan, Carterets and Mortlock experienced food shortage in which approximately 6000 people were in need of food assistance (IRIN, 2011).  This event occured after extended dry season causing drought and loss of food and water for the islanders. Climate change will have severe repercussions on the livelihood of the people in the absence of any effective govenment intervention that will aim to achieve and improve resilience to food security under climate change condition.  Planning and implementing programs that will mitigate the effect of climate change and long term adaptability strategies are essential steps contributing to efforts on reducing emission of GHG and ensuring food security.

II. EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FOOD SECURITY

Food Availability

Climate change will have negative effect on food crop production, livestock and fisheries sectors. Food crop production is very susceptible to climate change and it was estimated that it will reduce crop yields. There will be varying rainfall patterns resulting in heavier precipitation than usual and longer extended drought periods in the tropics.   Food crops seasonal production will be affected and reduce yield as plants become intolerant to longer drought and wet seasons.   Crop modeling studies under climate change showed that in the tropics average temperature increase of 1-2oC will have negative impact on crop production (Tubiello et al, 2008)

Animal production will be affected by climate change as temperature increase can cause heat stress to the animals which interfere with their physiological process, health and reproduction.  Indirectly when climate change reduced capacity for food production, animal nutrition will be in short supply and therefore prevent them from reaching full growth potential.

In the fisheries sector especially catch fisheries, fish production capacity will not be influence by climate change but it will affect the spatial distribution of the fish in the ocean.  Increase in water temperature will cause migration of the fish to more cool part of the ocean where it is favorable.  Fish and other marine life will be at risk of loss due to build up of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.  The capacity of the ocean to absorb CO2 with any detrimental effect to marine life is about 30%, however increased emission of green house gases will lead to rise in level of CO2  in the ocean which are converted to carbonic acid causing death of coral reef.

Food accessibility

Food accessibility refers to the ability of the household to have means either physical or economic means to have food for their daily consumption.  Household who rely on farming as their ways to earning income and providing food will experience less income and few foods available to meet their needs as land and environment become unsuitable for their crop or animal production.  A decrease in food production will cause price of food to escalate, reducing the purchasing power of poor household and hindering them from access to enough for their consumption.

Food utilization

Food security is vital in achieving good nutrition status.  Climate change has been predicted to have negative consequences on fullfilling the required nutritional needs of people if the availability and accessiblity to food is reduced.  The number of malnourished children and woman who are vulnerable will be at stake of disease and increase chances of mortality.

Climate change will increase incidence of food borne diseases due to changing patterns of food pathogens and altering of the environment that result in the imbalance in the microbial ecosystem.

Food handling and preparation hazard assessment need to be reviewed to identify new risk that emerged as impact of increase global surface temperature.   Food industries will need to reorientate their food safety systems to prevent food borne disease outbreak that may result due to climate change effect.

Cholera outbreak is termed as one of the good scenario to understand the effect of climate change on food borne disease outbreak.The outbreak reach high levels was found to be related to increase water temperature (FAO, 2008b).  Another example of climate change on food borne disease outbreak was studied between the hospitalization of children due to rotavirus infection, following periods of high  temperature and humidity,  there  was decreased  rate  of  hospitalization in  children  observed (D’Souza et al, 2008).  The study therefore showed that rotavirus is less tolerable to high temperature but favors low temperature.

Stability of the system

The constant access and availability of sufficient and nutritious food by every household is important to achieve food security.   If food production decline and on the supply side there is insufficient quantities of food availble to meet the demand, then food system stability will be difficult task to achieve.

III. MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION

Mitigation approach refers to methods that are needed to reduce the emission of green house gases and other land use activities that contribute to climate change. Adaptation is based on the approach that are necessary to optimize safe, nutritious and sufficient food supply and accessiblity in the era of climate change.  

Mitigating approach

Land use change for agriculture activity contributes to increase in green house gases.  Clearing of new lands for agriculture activities reduce the area of forest available for sequestring of CO2.   In additon opening of wet lands for crop cultivation release methane gas to the atmosphere.  Land tillage, use of nitrogen fertilizers are contributing factors to GHG emissions as well.   Management of crop land through appropriate practices provide possible mitigation solution towards effort on reducing of GHG. Intensification of the already cultivated land to optimize agriculture output without need for more new land openings.  Farming with perenial crops provide cover for soil from erosion, capture the carbon stock and form part of the agro forestry system.

Ongoing logging activities, clearing of lands for cash crop and food crops production has led to decrease conversion of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.   Efforts to increase of forest area from unused land as well as increasing carbon density of existing forest present better option for mitigating climate change. 

Papua New Guinea forest covers is the third in the world.  According to Green peace (2012), over 60 percent of the forest has been exploited by logging and agriculture activity already. Issues of illegal logging and lease of land for agriculture uses has been stated by World Bank and UN as a threat to the existing forest sustainability.  Since PNG has been part of the signatory to the Kyoto

protocol in reducing GHG it is the government responsibilities to regulate logging in a sustainable way and ensure transparency in leasing permit for agriculture and logging activities.

Following the Kyoto protocol in 1997, use of the ecosystem as carbon sequesterants was suggested as one of the way forward for nations to adapt and implement as global efforts towards mitigation of GHG. 

Carbon sinks in the soil and plants can be used to absorb carbon dioxide in the atmosphere through recommended soil management practice.  The benefits to soil is attain as carbon compounds in the soil is restored, which improves soil quality and optimize land for crop production.

Adaptive actions

The adaptive approach to be taken by the government or concerned groups to ensure food supply is consistent despite climate changing will be discussed here.

Identifying better technology to produce, preserve and distribute food will contribute to ensuring food security.   Development of new crop varieties tolerable to the climatic changes such as drought or rainfall are innovative prospects in the agriculture sector to keep up with the food production. Establishment of irrigation system for farmers is essential intervention when rainfall patterns become less which can cause huge loss to crops.  Upgrading of current infrastructure and storage facilities for distribution of crops from the producer to the consumers remain an issue in PNG, due to rough geographical condition of the land.  If a better market supply chain for food commodities exist food shortage in one region can be relieved through inter state or regional food exchange.   Achieving technological solution for food security adaptation in condition of climate change will require investment from both the government and private sectors.

Review of the current hazard assessment plan and identifying of new risks present in the food system are possible actions that can provide assurance that the food are safer for the population.

In  order  to  prevent the  loss  of  food  and income  due  to  climate  change,  programes  aimed  at improving food security could focus on diversification of income and food sources.  If a major means of earning income is not possible or food crops fail then people can easily transition to another options to sustain their living especially diversifying to non agricultural activity.

Government investment into safety nets program is important to assist households who experienced loss of income or less food access during the event of climate change.  Social safety nets programs need to be established and requires government reserving of funds for that purpose before the shock eventuates.

To summarize food security remains an important agenda for any government of the day. Prior planning and channeling of resources towards preparation of resilience system from effect of climate change are best decisions forwards as well as taking part in global action on reducing and sequestering of green house gases. Papua new guinea has a large rural base population whose livelihood are earned through subsistence farming, which place them in a vulnerable position to effect of climate change.